Going into too big of a Vertical?

[joemost]

Edit: should have made my title "Going into too competitive of a vertical"

For the first time in years I finally have some extended amount of free time and I really want to launch a project.

A little background: my day job is a software engineer. I love writing code. Truthfully it's one of the few things I'd say I'm very good at in life, maybe the only thing.. my alpine skiing is solid haha.

I've never really had an interest In writing. I've always wanted to launch a project where I could write a lot of code, build tools, maybe visual actions, fancy sites, etc.

Anyways, for the past few years I've toyed with the idea of starting my own sports statistics site...say for Football. Allow users to view statistics of players, schedules, teams, wins and losses, custom implementations of data, fancy data features etc. So much data is collected!

Part of why this attracts me is because 1. I follow a lot of sports, 2. I can focus more on tools (lineup builders, trade wizards, etc) and data visualization (salary cap projections, etc). 3. Sports seem like a fairly big vertical, not finance level big but if similarweb is accurate, it feels like there's plenty of room at the table for everyone to eat.

However: part of why I hesitate, I'd the competition. There are a lot of sites. Some from billion dollar companies: Yahoo, CbS, ESPN, pro football ref, pff, and other highly established sites who offer similar services. I've come down a little bit on this in thinking I'm taking on gollaith on some of these sites, some of these large companies probably have less people working on it than you think because they're focused on there opportunjtes..but I'm digressing.

Although I believe I can offer different features, sometimes I wonder if it would be a doomed time investment. But then I also google "Tom brady stats", and find a crappy website on page 4 of Google that STILL does nearly a million page views (via similarweb). The other beauties are because it's so data based (which is litterally free...Noone owns sports data)...I don't have to worry about any of that, if I build up one page for an NFL player, I should be able to then iterate and generate thousands of pages instantly, also just the ability of obivous expansion points. As things progress I could add other sports, American football is huge here... I can't even imagine what the page views of a succesful soccer or cricket site are.

So I'm torn. I can't take if it's cautious decision making or fear. Nothing is gusrrenteed but it's a significant time cost and I'd like to at least protect myself from being doomed from the start! My site could bring new things to the table, mostly in different visualizations of the data and tools, but it wouldn't be like I was reinventing the wheel. At the end of the day you could find out how many touchdowns and yards Tom Brady threw for anywhere haha. Obivously it's probably crazy to expect to beat espn, but could I be a page 3 site that still does okay? Maybe?

Currious what you guys think. I'm pretty open to all feedback. Sometimes I think it's a great idea and sometimes I'm so worried about wasting my 20s doing this.

 

[Ryuzaki]

Some things to consider:

Anything new you bring to the table can be copied by the big boys (and will be if it works out).

Having access to an updated stream of stats is going to involve some kind of API and paying the company doing the data collection and organization. Scraping for stats is possible but likely slow and still expensive (servers, proxies, constantly updated code).

Being a page 3 site will not do okay. If all of your webpages are on page 3 of Google's results, you'll get a grand total of zero traffic. That "tom brady stats" site on page 4 may get millions of views (according to SimilarWeb) but not from that search. It's not an indicator that you'll have tons of traffic even if you fail to rank. You'll get tons of traffic by being in the top 3, preferably 1. You've already mentioned 5 (and then inferred there's many more) high quality, big budget corporations already doing this.

Yes, it's crazy to expect to beat them. Impossible? No. But I bet they have some content developed for each page, understand on-page SEO optimization, get the benefit of the enormous backlink power and authority of being on domains like ESPN.com, etc. It's pretty bonkers to expect to compete head-to-head without similar resources.

This is the dilemma everyone faces. For the "content site" model, people might publish 5,000 articles for long-tail keywords that are so low volume that big boys won't go after them... until you've done all the work and they simply can take your list of keywords and get cheap writers to write the articles without much of the effort. Then they outrank you simply because they have the existing authority you don't have.

Does it mean don't do it? No, because here you can sneak in where they move too slowly or are too big to be looking, and get paid while it lasts. In your case, you're not really talking about anything like this. You're talking about standing toe-to-toe with the same data, same presentation, and some unique twists that they can copy.

It could be a great exercise. It could make some decent money. But as far as beating the giants, I doubt it. It could be something that does okay and some bigger player sees the value and wants to buy it all from you. You don't have to hit a home run out of the park. Getting on base may be good enough, which you could possibly do. Just keep your expectations in check.

You talked about how big the pie is and how one small slice or even some crumbs could be great for you. Another thing to consider is it tends to be just as difficult to make $10k and it is to make $100k, all depending on what you choose and who you're competing with. Those could be some very big crumbs falling off the "sports stats" table, but there's probably better pies to fight over where you could get an actual seat at the table as a one-man operation.

 

[joemost]

Some things to consider:

Anything new you bring to the table can be copied by the big boys (and will be if it works out).

Having access to an updated stream of stats is going to involve some kind of API and paying the company doing the data collection and organization. Scraping for stats is possible but likely slow and still expensive (servers, proxies, constantly updated code).

Being a page 3 site will not do okay. If all of your webpages are on page 3 of Google's results, you'll get a grand total of zero traffic. That "tom brady stats" site on page 4 may get millions of views (according to SimilarWeb) but not from that search. It's not an indicator that you'll have tons of traffic even if you fail to rank. You'll get tons of traffic by being in the top 3, preferably 1. You've already mentioned 5 (and then inferred there's many more) high quality, big budget corporations already doing this.

Yes, it's crazy to expect to beat them. Impossible? No. But I bet they have some content developed for each page, understand on-page SEO optimization, get the benefit of the enormous backlink power and authority of being on domains like ESPN.com, etc. It's pretty bonkers to expect to compete head-to-head without similar resources.

This is the dilemma everyone faces. For the "content site" model, people might publish 5,000 articles for long-tail keywords that are so low volume that big boys won't go after them... until you've done all the work and they simply can take your list of keywords and get cheap writers to write the articles without much of the effort. Then they outrank you simply because they have the existing authority you don't have.

Does it mean don't do it? No, because here you can sneak in where they move too slowly or are too big to be looking, and get paid while it lasts. In your case, you're not really talking about anything like this. You're talking about standing toe-to-toe with the same data, same presentation, and some unique twists that they can copy.

It could be a great exercise. It could make some decent money. But as far as beating the giants, I doubt it. It could be something that does okay and some bigger player sees the value and wants to buy it all from you. You don't have to hit a home run out of the park. Getting on base may be good enough, which you could possibly do. Just keep your expectations in check.

You talked about how big the pie is and how one small slice or even some crumbs could be great for you. Another thing to consider is it tends to be just as difficult to make $10k and it is to make $100k, all depending on what you choose and who you're competing with. Those could be some very big crumbs falling off the "sports stats" table, but there's probably better pies to fight over where you could get an actual seat at the table as a one-man operation.

Really appreciate this. Your right

I've been worried I don't have enough innovation in mind. I guess I'm a little confused if similarWeb is just wrong then? I guess the only people thay truly know is probably google.


Current battle is just finding something to do with upside. Maybe like you said, I focus on really nice tool that Noone else will have? I'm not sure. Need to figure it out :/

I had that in the back of my mind that even if I'm different I'm not sure it's enough. I can't count for the life of me the amount of times I've even used page 2 of Google. Let alone 3. Heck I'm not sure I even click beyond the 3rd result

I've kinda toyed with the idea of hyper focusing on just a tool.
There's some statistics websites called 'stathead' which is basically an advanced tool for building up sports stats

I think I've got a little bit of 'coders block'.
I want to make something that has high upside...it has to for me to want to do it on top of my day job, but I don't want to drive down a dead end road either

 

[bernard]

I like sports stats too, but it's a niche that is heavily dominated by some big players with extremely good data quality.

You can't compete with that.

I mean, your best bet might be to run a public betting record or something like that. Fantasy sports is big too, but I'm not into that.

In any case, you can blog, but videos would probably be a much better bet for this niche imo.

One such angle is doing those videos comparing stats of great players between eras. Everyone loves to argue MJ vs Lebron and so on, but there's a never ending list of topics on that and sports fans will watch even the most obsure stat comparison.

 

[joemost]

You can't compete with that.

Yeah the data wouldn't be the problem. But the big players are.

NFL for example:
Pro-Football-Reference (this is actually a small company, but I think theyve more or less been doing it since the dotcom bubble)

If I google 'Tom Brady stats' I get:

ESPN
NFL itself has a pretty good site
StatMuse (this one did appear in the last year though)
Usa Today
Fox Sports
Cbs Sports
PFF
Yahoo Sports

and many more.

I guess what I am misunderstanding here is if I similarWeb a site from that search query and then go to page 3 or 4, I can find many sites that seem to get significant estimated page views.
I guess the point is:
1. They aren't doing it from that query. It could be traffic from some other search they are ranked higher in
2. SimilarWeb could just be wrong
3. Both

To your point though, maybe the comparison route.. making a site with tools to do specific things like that is really the route. Deeper into Betting and Fantasy SPorts tools? Thats an interesting idea.

Typing this out has been very therapeutic haha, you guys have no idea

 

[joemost]

It could be a great exercise. It could make some decent money. But as far as beating the giants, I doubt it. It could be something that does okay and some bigger player sees the value and wants to buy it all from you. You don't have to hit a home run out of the park. Getting on base may be good enough, which you could possibly do. Just keep your expectations in check.

You talked about how big the pie is and how one small slice or even some crumbs could be great for you. Another thing to consider is it tends to be just as difficult to make $10k and it is to make $100k, all depending on what you choose and who you're competing with. Those could be some very big crumbs falling off the "sports stats" table, but there's probably better pies to fight over where you could get an actual seat at the table as a one-man operation.

OH! OH! Rereading this past again because it was super helpful.

Yeah to be clear at no time did I ever think I would be beating ESPN or Yahoo etc. It was more about can I be that nice hardware store on the block that you go to because you want a little better service and don't want Home Depot. But Home Depot will beat my price, have anything you could possibly need that day and more.

It sounds like there probably is a very limited upside. The personal time investment of this needs to have high 6 or 7 figure upside to prevent me from going insane. Not saying it'll ever get there, but otherwise I'd just rather get some low stress side gig software consulting job and trade hours for money after work. If that makes any sense.

Its interesting, this is a site I noticed called the Football Database ( https://www.footballdb.com/index.html ). I'd love to know if SimilarWebs estimates are accurate (300k monthly page views, but i bet you for half the year that probably doubles do to the NFL being inseason).

Thats got to be worth good money? There are 4 lowes display ads alone on this page! But I guess the counter point is this website might have built up its authority over the past 25 years.

I think I've come to the conclusion that I need to dial more down into a niche within sports. Say building tools specifically for betting or fantasy sports. Not sure if thats a bad idea or not. Its hard to tell whats overly competitive and whats not.

 

[ToffeeLa]

Or find a relatively popular sport at a lower level than NFL/NBA where you can use your skills to create something which does not yet exist? Do a search for the most popular spectator sports. (If you are American it is unlikely you will guess one of the major ones. It also has a DA25 non-https site in the top 5 for '*sport* statistics'!)

 

[bernard]

Or find a relatively popular sport at a lower level than NFL/NBA where you can use your skills to create something which does not yet exist? Do a search for the most popular spectator sports. (If you are American it is unlikely you will guess one of the major ones. It also has a DA25 non-https site in the top 5 for '*sport* statistics'!)

That's great advice.

Something like disc golf.

 

[JOoa0ky]

@joemost

Personally, I prefer to not play to compete because I play to win.

In the words of Jack Welch from GE... "Three months after taking over as CEO, Welch set a vision for each business unit that they had to be #1 or #2 in their markets; if not, they had to fix, sell, or close the unit. This later became his one of the most famous strategies."

Peter thiel also says that competition is for losers.

What am I trying to say?
I'm not going to waste my time on games that I don't think I can dominate in.

But... to each their own I suppose.

 

[tziahs]

You can also start a website with your own personal analysis on the statistics. You can make your own predictions, advise readers on what or who to watch during the next games.
Something like "my personal take on the 2004-2007 NFL seasons".
For this to actually work, you either have to be a good writer or bring something new to the table, and that's tough because everyone has an opinion on sports.
Good luck!

 

[joemost]

@joemost

Personally, I prefer to not play to compete because I play to win.

In the words of Jack Welch from GE... "Three months after taking over as CEO, Welch set a vision for each business unit that they had to be #1 or #2 in their markets; if not, they had to fix, sell, or close the unit. This later became his one of the most famous strategies."

Peter thiel also says that competition is for losers.

What am I trying to say?
I'm not going to waste my time on games that I don't think I can dominate in.

But... to each their own I suppose.

Makes sense. Just hard to find somrthing to dominate in!

 

[Kakeshi]

Entering into a fiercely competitive niche dominated by big companies will be challenging unless you can find an under-served sub-niche with lots of content gaps. If you can find such a sub-niche, you can start a website. As you are not much interested in writing and love programming, you can attempt creating online tools, interactive data comparison charts etc. for the audiences. Promoting the tools to the right audience either through content marketing (a weaker area for you due to minimum interest in writing) or through paid promotion will be a must to gain traction. Then, based on the popularity of the tool and on user's feedback, you can diversify. Please remember the main thing will be to find an underserved sub-niche inside the bigger niche.