Question regarding minimum organic traffic in niche/vertical

[Meos]

Question regarding minimum organic traffic in niche/vertical

Background:
In my research I have identified approx. 60 competitors; this does not include the powerhouses of the vertical but sites I think I can actually compete with in the short term.

The top 5 competitors are averaging approx 200 000 organic traffic per month (according ahrefs), but are all at 500 000+ total traffic according to similarweb. In total my competitors have approx 1 500 000 organic traffic per month, while the total traffic according to similarweb is approx 10 000 000.

As you can tell by the numbers there's quite a bit of direct traffic going to some of the sites with low organic traffic.

Is the traffic too low to achieve my goal of a $1,000,000 exit?:
$1M valuation at x40 multiple requires $25,000/month.
$25,000/month at $35 RPM requires approx 725,000 pageviews/month

$35 RPM in this niche is very conservative.

Based on these stats; should I kill this project right now because my goal is near impossible to achieve based on these numbers, or should I proceed but maybe adjust my expectations somewhat?

 

[Ryuzaki]

@Meos, it's not just a question of "can I get the exit valuation I want" but "how hard is it to get to that valuation and how long will it take?"

An easy $500k is just as good as a hard $1m. You should evaluate the competition levels, not just what they've achieved. How easily can you achieve it and how soon, are the questions.

 

[Meos]

@Meos, it's not just a question of "can I get the exit valuation I want" but "how hard is it to get to that valuation and how long will it take?"

An easy $500k is just as good as a hard $1m. You should evaluate the competition levels, not just what they've achieved. How easily can you achieve it and how soon, are the questions.

You're right - please forgive me for not having given this enough thought. Thank you for helping me adjust my frame of reference.

 

[Meos]

Doing in-depth competitor research has really thought me a lot, and it has given me a lot of confidence that I will be able suceed in the niche I've identifed.

Prior to doing in-depth competitor research I had a rough idea on how my sitemap would look like. After reviewing all my competitors I've made some significant changes (primarily because my original sitemap focused on quality content and was focused on a too narrow user persona - not where the organic traffic is; that is, I was focusing on giving quality content on workouts, but it turns out more people care more about what bottle holder or wheel roller they should have, and not about having quality workouts).

I would appriciate any feedback on the following site structure and siloing (using Bikers-nest as an example, an authority site for race-cyclists)

My plan is to have the Guide-section to be pillar content (5,000 - 30,000 words) with supporting pages in the Resource-tab (blog, tools, write-ups).

Initally monetization will be a combination of ads (guides- and resource-pages) and affiliate (reviews).

Down the line we will be looking at digital products or a recurring service-model.

 

[Ryuzaki]

Seems perfectly adequate. I love the notes you put in the drop down menus enough that I’d include that on the real site. I love “micro-copy”. It’s a great chance to influence your users.